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Published Oct 08, 21
4 min read

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However, the index has shown a CAGR of ~11% from 2017 till date3. Let’s get some more stats. The BSE Sensex had a CAGR of 11% and 21% during the two terms when Barack Obama was the President of the United States. The only other time this was beaten, was during the 1989-1993 presidency of George W Bush Sr.

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56 in the month following the election date. This means that the inherent structural trends in the Indian stock market will eventually take over in the longer term. Once the election result is out, passing of the $2 trillion stimulus bill will have a very positive effect on the US economy, and will boost investor confidence all across the globe.

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It is also expected, that regardless of the winner, the US Federal Reserve will not make any significant interest rate changes in the near future, after the three cuts it declared last year. The effect of continued low rates can be seen currently as well, as the Indian government has issued new bonds to finance its increased spending.

One or two strategic factors are enough to change the direction of the stock market and one has to first concentrate on protecting one’s portfolio, rather than focus on big returns in the current scenario. Speculations should give way to hedging, especially if there are any US investments in the portfolio.

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US Polls & Its Impact On Indian Markets As Donald Trump & Joe Biden lock horns, all the bulls & bears across continents are cautiously awaiting the results of US elections because even though the US accounts for just around 5% of the world’s population, it manages to generate 20% of the world income, and US trade policies impact many countries including India.

Calls for 52% Biden and 43% for Trump. The US President and his policies have implications on the Indian economy directly especially on our bilateral trade, H1B visas & Indian markets. Reports said that in the financial year of 2019-20, the total estimated value of the bilateral trade between India and the US stood at $89 bn.

So far, Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on Chinese imports worth $370 bn, and he is likely to continue it. Apart from that, Trump has good relations with Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and if Donald Trump continues his stay in the White House for the next four years then this relationship will further strengthen and help India economically i.

What if… Biden Wins Joe Biden is contesting the presidency as a representative of the Democratic Party against the current US President Donald Trump. Biden has hinted at putting an end to the ongoing tariff war with China. Last month, in a virtual campaign event to commemorate Independence Day, Joe Biden reportedly said that he would advocate “standing with India and confronting the threats it faces in its region and along its borders; expanding greater two-way trade that opens markets and grows the middle class in both our countries; taking on big global challenges together like climate change and global health security and strengthening our democracies where diversity is our mutual strength.

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In case Joe Biden wins the elections, investors may have to wait and watch the decision or steps taken by the US and Indian government. What if…No one emerges as a clear winner Indian stock markets are likely to take it adversely if the outcome is not in the favour of either of the candidates because all the future decisions will be on hold and may delay the trade activity as well.

Impact on Indian Markets Whether the White House residents change or remain the same, the US Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rate policy is likely to continue in the near term. If Biden claims the throne, then analysts expect someone with a dovish stance to replace Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

Falling interest rates will make India an attractive option as it would result in the continued inflow of cheap capital into Indian stock as well as debt markets. However, as discussed earlier, if there isn’t a clear winner then the markets are likely to see some downside on uncertainty over the US elections outcome and stimulus decisions.

If we look at Indian stock markets, Information Technology (IT) and the pharmaceutical sector generates sizable revenue from the US. Software exporting companies and Indian drugmakers are the top-performing components (see the chart below) of the Indian equity market amid the pandemic and the outcome of the US Presidential elections will have a direct impact on these sectors as the stance of both the candidates on taxation, trade, and immigration policies differs.